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AFL
What a bizarre round of football in the AFL last week!
We had only three favourites win, there were several 'come from behind' wins, and still no Gary Ablett. Actually Ablett has been ruled out again this week, so I bet that the guy who sent out the media release from Geelong that wanted bookies to apologise for suggesting Ablett would be out for several weeks is now cowering in a corner? In effect, that will make it five rounds where Ablett would not have scored a vote, the three games he has missed, the one where he went off injured, and the previous week to that where he wasn't a factor.
In our opinion, that makes the Brownlow betting all wrong, and we have chased Ablett out to 3.25, at the same time shortening most of the others behind him. Team-mate Jimmy Bartel is now in a good position to win two in a row as he would have amassed plenty of votes in the last month. Just on five weeks ago, Bartel was a 100/1 chance, but is now third pick at 4.50. We have cut Brent Harvey from the Kangaroos into 3.25 equal favourite as he has continuously been in the Roos' best players each week, and they have won enough matches to give Harvey a chance at the medal, but there really are a number of winning chances.
The results of last weekend saw some major changes to the flag betting. Hawthorn lost and was cut from 5.50 into 5.25, the logic behind that being that the Hawks (following the Bulldogs loss) are now likely to run second behind the Cats. The Bulldogs went from 6.00 out to 8.00, and Geelong came into 1.60 from 1.70. We are now beginning to see money come for Geelong and Melbourne Storm in premiership doubles, with that quote now into 3.50. A repeat of last year's wins by both will be a blackout for bookies.
This week's AFL action has been quiet early in the week, perhaps as a result of all of the upsets in the previous round. The best betting game has been the Kangaroos v Brisbane clash, which will be played on the Gold Coast. Brisbane had a 31 point victory over the Roos in May, but the Lions have lost a bit of form since then. It is a must win game for both, but we have a liking for the Lions. The Kangaroos struggled in the conditions last time at Carrara (lost to St Kilda) when they had trouble scoring, and with Brisbane having both Brown and Bradshaw down to play, it is hard to see how the Kangaroos will kick a competitive score. Most of our punters disagree with close to $16,000 being placed on the Roos at the opening quote of 2.25, but betting has levelled out now that the Lions have touched 1.70.
There is strong mail that the West Coast may be missing a big name or two on Sunday when they play Fremantle, but we have found any amount of support for the Eagles. The 2.65 has been taken with close to $4000 in bets early in the week, and the handicap start (14 points) has seen another $20,000 come in under the Eagles name.
Carlton has been one of the surprises of the year, and we rate them a strong chance of beating the Crows on Saturday. Adelaide looked good against Sydney, but their hopes will be reliant on Jason Porplyzia and his shoulder. It popped out again last week, and with Brett Burton out of the side, they cannot afford to lose Porplyzia at any stage. If he isn't named, then the 1.65 is gross 'unders' and will drift, but with this problem becoming far too regular, I wouldn't like to be stepping in and taking odds on for Adelaide. We have to take them on!
Rugby League
Favourites came to the fore in round 20 of the NRL, and when the weekend was finally over, it would be fair to say that bookies are probably happy to see the back of Sonny Bill Williams.
There was a lot of money last Friday for the Dragons to smash the Bulldogs on the Monday night, with the main reason being SBW would be out.....but it wasn't for the reasons you would think. SBW had gone to mid-New South Wales for the Footy Show the day before, and word had leaked out that he was suffering badly from a stomach illness and could be out. That saw the 1.36 and -7½ for the Dragons taken, although with this type of thing becoming a regular occurrence in games featuring the Bulldogs, we were very cautious with the betting limits, with the largest accepted being $7600 at 1.36. At least we all know now that SBW will be out every week, so we won't have to worry about the rumours each round.
The Bulldogs are now 2.15 to win the wooden spoon, with the Cowboys at 1.65. The Cowboys have an advantage in so much that they will now start to get some of their injured players back, but the Bulldogs are in dire straights. They have been one of the best backed sides (along with Souths) to run last, and it looks a real possibility.
The Cowboys host the Roosters this week, and while the Sydney side have a great record in Townsville, we have noticed plenty of takers for the Cowboys to win at 4.00 and also with 10½ points start. There have been several outsiders backed with the start this week, including Penrith and Canberra. The Panthers handicap has moved from 10 into 8½ start against Manly, and the way Manly went last week we can understand why. The Raiders will be in Brisbane, and while there is a large query on their form away from home, we have taken close to $10,000 in bets for them with 10 start against Brisbane. The Titans go into Saturday night's match against Melbourne as the longest priced side of the year at 13.00, and that is hard to believe for a side who won seven of their first eight games!
Rugby Union
The defection of Sonny Bill Williams to rugby union has been dominating the news all week, and we have opened up a market on whether or not SBW will line up for the All Blacks in the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
We have the 'No' as 1.75 with 'Yes' at 2.00, and it has been a great talking point in both codes. Our thinking behind 'no' being favourite is that there is a long time to go, he could be injured, he could be in some sort of legal strife that would preclude him, or he simply may just walk away from union....and from what we saw last week that will always be a possibility. Of course there is also a question mark over whether he would be good enough to get a game, so there are a lot of reasons why he might not be there.
Unfortunately, the Sonny Bill saga has kept the Wallabies great win over New Zealand last week out of the headlines. It was a terrific victory as they surrendered a second half lead to come back and win 34-19, and that is in contrast to their form over recent times. Even though the Aussies were only a 2.30 chance, it was a good result for bookies as the All Blacks were very well supported. Some of the bets for New Zealand included $10,000 and $8000 at 1.65, as well as another bet of $7700 conceding 3½ points start. New Zealand were backed from 2.50 into 2.25 to win the Tri-Nations series, but after that loss they are out to 3.75.
New Zealand will be out for revenge this week, and on face value, we think they will get their wish. Eden Park has been a gloomy place for the Aussies on previous visits, and although we welcome back Stirling Mortlock, Richie McCaw will also be back to lead out the All Blacks. Following on from last week's win, we thought we may have got some early shoppers for Australia at 2.60, but there were none around, so that would suggest that the record of the home side has frightened Wallaby fans away.
Formula One
The Hungarian GP is on this weekend, and Lewis Hamilton is 2.20 to maintain his winning form.
No one make of car has ever been able to dominate in Hungary, although Hamilton will be attempting to make it back-to-back wins after defeating Kimi Raikkonen and Nick Heidfeld last year. The McLarens of Hamilton and Fernando Alonso dominated the qualifying, and it was that duo that were at the head of the grid, with Alonso winding up in fourth position.
The betting action has been extremely quiet on this event, with money only coming for Hamilton to win, along with small bets for Heikki Kovalainen (13.00) and Alonso at 41.00, with both of those drivers also attracting good support to finish on the podium. At this stage, there has been very little interest in the Ferrari pairing of Raikkonen (3.20) and Felipe Massa (4.50), so we will be looking for them to show something in the qualifying sessions after a couple of disappointing efforts.