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Australian Rules
Now we are down to the business end of proceedings in the AFL, and the Cats continue to firm in flag betting.
Lasseters is currently quoting 1.42 for Geelong, which is at the top end of the market, and when you try and work out how short they can be in the last two matches, it is hard to see how they can be much shorter. If they were to play Hawthorn in the final, they couldn't be much shorter than 1.25, so we are happy to take them on at 1.42. There is practically no interest in any other side, so that means that the Cats will not get to a better quote unless the unthinkable happens, and they lose to St Kilda.
The odds of a Saints win are pretty high, with them opening at 6.00 on Monday. Geelong is 1.13, and while there haven't been any takers for the short odds just yet, we have taken nearly $6000 for them to win by 33 points or more. St Kilda has come with a rush late in the season, and at one stage were 4.50 to make the final eight, yet ended up in fourth spot. Apart from the top two sides, all the others have struggled for consistent wins, and of course now the sides sitting in the 5-8 bracket have to win four games in a row to win the flag, a big ask.
Adelaide held off a determined Bulldogs challenge (unfortunately) last week, and once again had trouble scoring. Collingwood were woeful against Fremantle, but did have a 32 point victory over the Crows last time they met in July. AAMI Stadium shouldn't hold too many fears for the Magpies either as they have won half of their 10 starts there against the Crows. The other big stat that might come into play is Adelaide have only averaged 13 goals per game this season, so if the Collingwood midfield can play the game up the middle, then they can win for sure...or at least we hope they can. There has been good money early in the week for Adelaide at 1.65, including two bets of $3000, so they look like they are going to be easy to sell at around that quote.
The Swans find themselves 1.71 favourites over the Kangaroos for the same reason that Adelaide are. The home ground advantage is a big plus in AFL, but it is worth noting that the Swans will be at ANZ Stadium, and that is not where their best form is always on display. They have lost at their last two appearances at ANZ, and the last time they met the Roos in Melbourne, the game ended in a draw. The Kangaroos have been a terrific side for bookies, always the underdogs and they keep on winning, and last week when they went around at 1.20, over they go! This looks likely to be a low scoring affair, and that means it could go either way, so we will be taking on the Swans.
The Bulldogs have hit a form slump at the wrong time, but a few value shoppers think they can turn it around on Friday night. After opening at 3.60, a steady stream of bets (nothing over $1000 though) saw that price cut to 3.40. The handicap has been set at 19 points start to the Doggies, and there has been some interest in that as well. Normally come finals time, most of the outsiders do firm up in betting, especially with the start, and this looks like being the same.
Gary Ablett will go into Brownlow night as favourite, and he might well win, but he is under the odds. This week we have taken nearly $2000 for Ablett at 2.50, but there has been money scattered amongst several other players as well. Our AFL expert claims that Ablett Jnr will not poll in at least 10 games, and Jimmy Bartel will beat him home. We will cover more on the Brownlow next week; by then there should be a 'leak' or two floating about.
Rugby League
Only one round to go in the regular NRL season, and we still can't payout on any of the major 'futures' as all spots are still up for grabs.
That has seen an unprecedented amount of interest in the final round as punters try and work out the permutations of some of the games. Betting against Penrith has become a profitable past-time for many punters over the past few weeks, and the same group have been out and about again this week. It looks like there are big troubles in the Panthers camp, and after opening at 4.00 to beat Manly this week, their price had nearly doubled in the first 24 hours. Several four figure bets have been placed on the Sea Eagles to give Penrith a belting, with the handicap moving from -11½ into -14½ in the first 24 hours, and it looks destined to move even further. Apart from the problems Penrith are having, Manly have an added incentive that a big victory may see them win the minor premiership.
Newcastle provided one of the season’s biggest upsets last week when downing Melbourne, but can they do it again on Friday night against Brisbane? We think so, and have been eager to get some money for the Broncos, but it has been hard to come by. Punters are treating this game with a great deal of caution with less than $5000 placed on Brisbane at a best priced handicap of -8½.
At the same time, the Roosters will be up against the Dragons, and a win for the boys from the Eastern Suburbs will see them finish in fourth place. That is crucial, but they have been deserted by the betting public even though they welcome back Anthony Minichiello. Some outlets have them as high as 2.00, which has meant that our 1.91 for the Dragons is in play, and we have taken close to $8000 for them to continue on with their good form.
Now that the season is over for the Eels, expect them to win this week! Their match against the Warriors has seen a rather bizarre betting move, or we should say a bizarre 'no betting move'. As much as 2.25 was available on Wednesday for the Eels before New Zealand's Wade McKinnon had to front the judiciary. Most expected him to get off a spitting charge, but he was rubbed out for three weeks, and the betting didn't move. McKinnon is the best player in the Warriors side, so we will be taking them on, and have been accommodated to the tune of $7000 at 1.68.
Motor Bikes
For the second race in a row Casey Stoner parted company with his Ducati, and that saw Valentino Rossi go on to win Sunday's San Marino MotoGP, and at the same time ended Stoner's bid for back to back riders titles.
Incredibly, the young Aussie had made it seven pole positions on end, but it looked as though he was just trying too hard to peg back the lead that Rossi had. Stoner went in to the San Marino race as a 1.60 chance, and I suppose that was always going to be the risk with him; he had to pull out all stops to get a victory.
Rossi was the only other rider in contention at 2.85, and there was the usual amount of support for him, but he was still a much better result for us than Stoner. There are still five races to go in the season, so really the only interest from a betting angle from here on in will be the race in Australia where no doubt Stoner will be focused on winning in front of his home crowd.
It goes without saying that he will be in the same mind-set in the other races, but we have noticed in the past that once either a MotoGP or Formula One title is all but wrapped up, punters drop right off, and you really can't blame them.