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The Princesses Sports Wraps

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Punters had bookies on the ropes early on last weekend, but thanks to shock
victories by Carlton, Brisbane and Richmond in the AFL, the bagmen made a spectacular comeback!

AFL

Things got under way with a massive plunge on the Western Bulldogs to defeat
Essendon. We reported last week, the early money had been for the Bulldogs,
but on Thursday morning it came the other way. Close to $15,000 was placed
on Essendon with an eight point-start (1.92), but when the sides were
announced later that night, betting was thrown into chaos.

Essendon's Matthew Lloyd was ruled out and that saw the price for the
Bombers blow like the north wind during the next 24 hours. We managed to
dodge a lot of the early onslaught, but there was no missing it at the
finish as big money arrived for the Bulldogs. The last bet on the match was
$11,000 for the Bulldogs conceding 18½ points start and that was shortly
after we accepted a 'win' bet of $20,000 at 1.36. Considering 1.70 was
available for the Bulldogs on Thursday morning, it was one of the biggest
moves of the season.

The Swans were another decent 'go' in their big win over the Eagles. The
handicap in that game moved from -22½ out to -30 at game time, although we
were fortunate enough to attract some Eagles money, including $6000 with
five goals start. They lost more players in the lead-up to the game, and was
the reason behind the big move, and on current form, there is little
likelihood of them contesting this year?s finals.

Port Adelaide was going to inflict some more pain when they raced to an
eight goal lead late in the third quarter against Brisbane. Although one
late shopper had placed $5500 on Brisbane with 17 points-start, all the
money (including one bet of $12,000 at 1.40) was for Port. They are another
team now in big trouble, and will need a few minor miracles to take place if
they are to play finals footy.

As we said, Carlton and Richmond provided an 'out' for bookies on Sunday but
having said that there was interest in both. Carlton punters were keen on
their chances with 25 points-start (one bet of $15,000 alone), and Richmond
also drew some hefty bets on their handicap of 37½. One Victorian placed
$6000 at that start, while another placed a total of $900 on the Tigers to
win at 6.00. We were more than happy to pay him though as there was a lot of
multi money 'alive' into Fremantle even though Collingwood had been beaten.
A new client from Sydney placed the biggest losing multi on Collingwood,
which was $10,000 at 1.97 for both the Magpies and Hawks to win.

The upcoming round has several short-priced favourites, but betting has been
extremely quiet early in the week. Perhaps punters are 'gun shy' following
the last two results from last weekend, but no doubt that will all change as
Friday approaches.

The one significant move to date has been Port Adelaide to beat the Eagles
on Sunday in Perth. The Eagles fall from grace has been reflected in the
betting ring as well, with not one bet placed on them in the first 48 hours
of betting. They have drifted from 1.90 out to 2.10, and that is unheard of
when they play at home. The other bizarre thing with this game is that Port
is winless after four rounds, and were responsible for one of the greatest
'chokes' of all times last week. In any case, Port has already been slashed
from 1.90 into 1.75, so will go in as clear favourites.

Geelong is now 2.30 to win the flag, with Hawthorn (5.00) the only serious
threat according to our AFL analyst. The 2.30 looks a short price so far
out, but we continue to get bets coming through, so in the mind of the
public it is 'overs'. A side still has to win three matches during the
finals series to win the competition, and of course injuries are always a
concern. This week the Cats host Sydney, and the Swans are unwanted at 4.50
now that Barry Hall is on the sidelines. We thought St Kilda had a chance
against Geelong last week, and they were belted, so it is hard to put a case
up for Sydney this week. We have taken a few small bets early in the week
for Geelong to beat a handicap of 24½ points, and nothing at all for the
Swans.

The match of the round will see Hawthorn take on Brisbane at the GABBA on
Saturday night. The big query with Brisbane will be how they come up after
that fantastic come from behind win against Port in the wet. One thing they
have in their favour is that Hawthorn has lost their last seven matches at
the GABBA, and that is why they may seem over-priced at 1.74. This Hawthorn
side is a much better outfit than any that turned up in those previous seven
games, but it is funny how history often repeats itself. We will be getting
something out of the Hawks, but a win by either side wouldn't surprise.

Rugby League

Although six of the eight league favourites won last weekend, the cards fell
the right way for Lasseters.

We recorded very good wins on the Titans and the Cowboys, and oddly enough
the Raiders were also a big help. We found there was any amount of money for
the Tigers to not only get within five points of the Raiders, but also win.
Admittedly we did chase the Tigers out after Robbie Farah was ruled out, but
we didn't expect there to be the level of interest there was. One Sydney
punter placed a total of $11,000 on the win and handicap price, and the
Tigers fans would have been counting the cash when they led 24-10 at
half-time. There was no way out for us, but amazingly Canberra scored 20
unanswered points to get home over the handicap.

The Titans are one of our favourite sides, and they didn't do that
reputation any damage with a 28-20 win over Parramatta. The Eels have been
suffering from the same problem that St George Illawarra suffers from,
'Favourites Syndrome'. It seems that when either side is expected to win,
they don't! The Eels had attracted a lot of activity, including one bet of
$10,000 conceding eight points-start, and were never really any chance of
covering that.

Souths are winless after five rounds, but they were valiant in defeat on
Monday night. That doesn't help Jason Taylor, or those who backed them to
make the finals, but there are a lot of punters sitting out there who are
holding some tickets worth plenty of the Rabbits finish at the tail end of
the ladder. We gave 26.00 about Souths running last, which seemed fair
enough given they had been backed into a similar quote to win the
competition. That has led to several queries regarding whether or not they
will go through the season without winning, so we have opened a market on
that. Now I think that win number one will come up against the Tigers this
week, and surely they showed enough on Monday night to say that if it isn't
this week, then the first win isn't far away? However everything has a
price, and the odds of Souths not winning a game is 51.00.

Our market on who will be the NSW half back continues to attract huge
attention from punters, and the opinions are widespread. Brett Finch is the
new favourite at 2.75, and although the Eels were beaten by the Titans last
week, Finch would not have lost many friends. Todd Carney has been the one
punters want to be on this week following another impressive performance
against the Tigers, and has firmed from 9.00 on Monday into 6.00. There has
also been a concerted push for Kurt Gidley (11.00 into 5.00), and although
we thought he was more likely to be named on the bench, several experts have
said he is in the right form to be half back. Peter Wallace has been stable
in the market, but has eased slightly to 3.50 from 3.00. The one player who
we thought would be hard to sell this week was Matt Orford, but one Manly
fan has backed Orford to win close to $5000 at 21.00.

This week's round looks tricky with a lot of question marks over injured
players. The big game is on Friday night when Gold Coast hosts Brisbane, and
a lot depends on the availability of Justin Hodges for the Broncos. Our mail
is that Hodges is an unlikely starter, so we are taking the Broncos on at
1.85, and have already taken bets of $5000 and $3800. Even if Hodges does
play, the Titans will still be hard to beat at home.

Are the Cowboys 'back' or not? That question will be answered on Saturday
night when they tackle the Warriors. The last two games have seen an
incredible turnaround from the North Queenslanders, and really if they were
in the form that we know they can produce, then they would be shorter than
the -6½ that we have. They have a terrific winning record at home against
the Kiwis, which includes the last five straight. There has been a
sprinkling of early money for the Warriors, so we are pinning our faith in
the Cowboys to maintain their return to form.

Golf

South African Trevor Immelman won his first Major in defeating Tiger Woods
by three strokes at Augusta National on Sunday.

The win meant the world's number one player had been relegated to runner up
in consecutive years and by players who were not considered his major
threat. Like Zach Johnson in 2007, there were no real signs that Immelman
would be the man to halt Wood's in his quest for the Grand Slam, especially
when Tiger was in such devastating form.

Immelman was a 67.00 chance when markets were opened for the Masters some
six months ago, but so poor had his form been in the lead up to this event
bookmakers were keen to 151.00 prior to tee off. That price tumbled into
19.00 as he found himself equal leader after round one and into 2.40 on
Sunday where he held a two shot lead over an inexperienced Brandt Snedeker
and still six shots to the good of Woods. His three over par 75 in the final
round proved to be the worse final round by the winner of the Masters in the
event's history, only matched by Arnold Palmer back in 1962. Having said
that only four players broke par on the final day which indicates how
difficult the course was playing.

The likeable South African owes a lot of his success to his family but also
to his mentor, Gary Player. Player, the winner of three green jackets
himself, gave Immelman some advice on the Saturday evening, and that advice
was just a simple word, 'believe'. Believe is just what Immelman did,
holding out all challengers until a double bogey on the 16th opened the door
ajar. No challengers were able to take advantage of that opening and that
included Woods, who bogeyed the 14th and missed 6ft putts for birdie on 15
and 16. Without those errors, Wood's search for the Grand Slam may still
well and truly be alive.

From a betting perspective the Masters was a little disappointing, probably
because Tiger was beaten, and probably for only the second time in the last
ten events we did not stand him. That wasn't for the want of trying, as we
were 2.35 for the last day of betting, and that was clearly top odds in the
world. Unfortunately our clientele were not keen to take the short odds in
an event of this magnitude, and from a bookmaking position there is little
else you can do other than be top odds.

On the bright side Immelman was also difficult to lay so the event was still
a winning one, not just as big as we would have liked. Those in the betting
who were well supported, such as Justin Rose (34.00 into 26.00), K.J Choi
(41.00 into 34.00) and Retief Goosen (41.00 into 29.00), all appeared to
have some hope at certain stages of the event before fading to finish out of
the placings.

Woods now spends some time on the sidelines with an operation on his left
knee which will see him out of action until two weeks before the PGA.
Because of this we have suspended betting on the British Open until
confirmation that the world number one is fully fit.

This week we head to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the Verizon Classic.
In typical fashion in recent weeks betting has been a little slow, and it
can almost solely be directed to the lack of consistency of the top players
as the cause.

Ernie Els and Jim Furyk head the betting at 15.00 but Els is undergoing
swing changes under Butch Harmon and Furyk has started the season slower
than a snail. Stewart Cink is next in the betting at 16.00, fresh from his
third finish at the Masters, while Aaron Baddeley and Justin Rose share the
next line at 21.00 from Sean O'Hair at 26.00 and Johnson and Snedeker at
29.00.

That's a fairly classy bunch of players who head the betting, yet it is only
Baddeley who has won support, 26.00 into 21.00, including one wager of
$1,000 each-way. Others well supported include Billy Mayfair (51.00 into
41.00) and Kevin Na (81.00 into 67.00). Perhaps the player with the best
form at Hilton Head has been Davis Love with four wins and a couple of
runner-up finishes, however even at 67.00 we cannot sell him for 'Love of
Money'.

Rugby

Week nine of the Super 14's once again produced a mixed bag of results for
the bagmen with punters landing a couple of good 'go's'.


We kicked off on the Friday evening with the Highlanders hosting the Sharks
in Dunedin, the home team being 3.00 outsiders and receiving eight
points-start. That start was quickly snaffled by punters and by kick off a
flat seven was hard to get. The 3.00 was also taken by punters so we were
happy to see the Sharks escape with a lucky 19-17 win. We took some hits at
the start but a win to the Highlanders would have been a real disaster

The first game on the Saturday saw the Crusaders host the Lions in
Christchurch, with the home team being a miserly 1.02 and conceding 23½
points. Obviously no business was done at the win but there was still plenty
of support for the Crusaders at the start including two separate wagers of
$5,000.

At this point the week had not started well and we were looking for a result
in the Blues and Brumbies encounter to get us out of the hole. The Blues
were 1.36 and were conceding eight points to the Brumbies who were 3.00 to
win. The game was not a well supported one from a singles perspective
however the Blues were the median of plenty of support through multis, most
which included the Crusaders and most which were live leading into the game.
One $10,000 multi included the above mentioned teams, the Stormers and
Storm, who were both to win, so the 16-11 result to the Brumbies was a
pleasing one and got our nose back in front.

The Force then hosted the Waratahs in Perth in a battle for a spot in the
top four. The Force were well supported at 1.66 however, there was also good
money for the Waratahs receiving the 3½ start. Our only poor result was the
Force winning by one to three, so the upset, while not being a big result
was better than the alternative had the Force pushed over the try line in
the last three minutes as was looking likely.

We then headed across to South Africa where the Stormers hosted the Cheetahs
in Cape Town and the Bulls hosted the Hurricanes in Pretoria. Betting on the
Stormers game saw money for both teams with early money for the visitors
receiving 12½ start, then good money for the Stormers conceding 12. The
scoreline of 34-22 to the Stormers was not a good result but a half a point
worse would have been a disaster.

The final game saw the Bulls at 1.60 and conceding four points to the
Hurricanes at 2.40. There was some money for the Bulls to win but once again
the outsiders were well supported receiving the start so the 50-22 win to
the visitors was not the result it may have appeared on paper. On the effort
of the Bulls, one can only say it would be impossible to have your hard
earned on then in future.

This week we have a couple of top notch game but none better than the Chiefs
and Crusaders in Waikato on Friday evening. The Chiefs ate 3.00 outsiders
and are receiving 6½ points from the Crusaders who have already been the
median of good support, including one $5,000 wager conceding the start.

The other games of note see the Brumbies hosting the Sharks in Canberra with
the home team at 2.00 and the visitors 1.80. Early money indicates the
Brumbies will start shorter in a must win game for them if they are to keep
their semi final aspirations alive.

The final game of the round is a blockbuster in Cape Town as the Stormers
host the Hurricanes, the loser being eliminated from the semi-final race.
The Stormers are 1.75 with the Hurricanes 2.10 and receiving 2½ points. No
money for either team at this point however I'm sure there will be plenty of
interest for both teams as the game nears. I'm also sure the Hurricanes will
find the Stormers a different proposition to the Bulls they faced last week
in this winner take all clash.

Motor Bikes

Casey Stoner is really in the doldrums at the moment, and it is amazing how
far off the pace the Ducati's are at the moment.

Stoner qualified well back on the grid and was an 11.00 chance going into
last Sunday's Portuguese MotoGP, but he failed to attract any attention from
the punting public. He eventually wound up in sixth position, but to be
fair, he did have trouble with an on board camera early in the race. After
opening at 2.50 to win back to back titles, Casey is still favourite at
3.25, but we would want to see some improvement soon as he is currently 21
points behind Jorge Lorenzo who leads the table on 61 points.

Lorenzo won in Portugal, his first victory since moving up from the 250cc
class where he won two titles. He has already shown that he is going to be
hard to beat in any upcoming race, but to date punters haven't warmed to
him. Even though he was the quickest qualifier at the weekend, Lorenzo went
into the race virtually unwanted, even though he was at 3.75. Punters stuck
with Valentino Rossi (2.75) and Dani Pedrosa (3.00), and that duo filled the
podium positions behind Lorenzo.

The good part about all of that is that the season has now opened right up.
It did appear as though Stoner would have a stranglehold on races this year,
but both Yamaha and Honda have made some serious inroads into the advantage
that Ducati had, and that can only create more interest, especially from
punters.