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Australian Rules
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the punters were on the ball again last week when another six favourites won, and all were heavily backed. Carlton were the side that saved us again, coming from a seemingly hopeless position for the second week in a row. The Blues put paid to Collingwood (1.35), and the Magpies were probably the side that attracted most business through the multiples for the weekend, so it was a result that helped us out. The loss by Collingwood has seen their flag odds drift from 8.00 out to 12.00, whereas the Blues, written off by all a few weeks back, are now in the 8, and 51.00 to go all the way.
The wins by Essendon (1.90-1.60), Bulldogs (1.50-1.33) and Fremantle (1.78-1.58) proved costly for all bookmakers, but luckily for us there was some interest in their opponents. One bet of $10,000 was placed on the West Coast (+10.5) against Essendon, $12,000 went on the Kangaroos with 12½ start against Fremantle, and the Lions drew a bet of $15,000 with 17 points start in their match against the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs continue to firm in flag betting, but they are still yet to convince punters. This week we have cut the Bulldogs price in to 6.00, and there is no doubt that if they were one of the 'glamour' sides of the competition, then they would be less than half of that quote. Geelong remain the top picks at 2.50 ahead of Hawthorn at 4.00, with the Swans (9.00) the only other side in single figures.
There is a mounting list of casualties ineligible for the Brownlow Medal, and Lance Franklin has had his name added to that list this week. Franklin has been on fire this year, but it took until last Friday for Lasseters to take the first decent bet for Buddy, and that was $2000 at 11.00. Very untimely for that particular Victorian client, but it is one of the hazards of betting on the Brownlow in this day and age. Normally when there is a player well up in the betting that suffers the same fate, then we see a big drop off in betting interest, and with some of the big names that have already gone this year, that is completely understandable.
There are a couple of good betting games on this week, and one of those is first cab off the rank on Friday night.
St Kilda showed glimpses of a return to form last week, but it was only glimpses! They return to Telstra Dome this week, but have to take on Fremantle, and the early money ahs been for the Dockers. Fremantle returned to their best last week, but they have played St Kilda at the Dome twice before and failed to win, and have lost 9 of their last 10 games interstate. We opened the Dockers at 2.30, but close $5000 saw that price cut to 2.25, and we have had trouble finding any St Kilda supporters at 1.67.
Adelaide had a real 'gut buster' against Hawthorn last week, but will be aided by the return of forward Brett Burton when they travel to Brisbane on Saturday night. The GABBA has not been a happy hunting ground for the Crows in the past, and we thought that coming off the back of that tough game last week, they would struggle against Brisbane. Punters disagree with us here as the Crows were backed from 3.60 into 3.25 in the first 48 hours of betting (including three $2000 bets) and once handicap betting was opened we saw another wave of bets, including one of $4500 with three goals start.
The handicap betting for the Swans has also seen some early moves, with a couple of New South Wales based punters placing nearly $9000 on the Swans to beat Melbourne by more than 38 points. The Demons were good against Richmond, but you have to wonder how many valiant losses one team can endure. Melbourne have an atrocious travelling record, but this game will be played in Canberra, and our line of thinking is that there is always a chance of bleak weather in the ACT, and that may keep the scoring down.. well that's what we are hoping for anyway!
Rugby League
Those who follow the money trail when placing a bet on rugby league would have lined their pockets last weekend when every winner was well supported. The first tow matches saw the handicap move in favour of both the Roosters and Cronulla, and each of those sides covered those spreads, but the real damage was done on the final three matches. Brisbane had a stack of late withdrawals due to injury, and that saw Canberra firm from 2.40 into 1.75, the Eels were a huge go against the Tigers (2.00 into 1.60), and to round of a bleak weekend, Newcastle were backed from 2.00 into 1.70 in their 12 point victory over North Queensland. The only one of the beaten division to attract any interest at all was Brisbane, who had bets of $10,000 and $7000 placed on them at 2.00, but in the overall scheme of things it was nowhere near enough.
Things are back to normal this week with a full round on, and all the Origin players eligible to play. Having said that, there are a few sides struggling with a growing injury toll, and three of those sides feature on Friday night. The Broncos and the Tigers clash at Suncorp, with both sides having several players on the sidelines. Both were also humbled last weekend, so it has been a difficult one to assess. Punters have kept right out of this one early in the week, but our view is that it could go either way, so we will be looking to take Brisbane on at the 1.55 to win.
Penrith have a large list of causalities as well, and with St George Illawarra in form (won 5 of their last 6), and also having a full squad to pick from, punters have launched into the Dragons. The opening handicap of 8 points in favour of the Dragons disappeared quickly on the back of bets totalling nearly $9000, so their winning run is expected to continue.
Before the season started, Melbourne Storm were 3.00 to win the title and North Queensland were considered the main danger at 8.00. This week the two meet, and just to show how bad the Cowboys have been this year, they are a staggering 10.00 to win this match.. and there are no takers! In fact, the handicap was set at -20 points in favour of Melbourne, and some heavy hitters were into that straight away. The line has now moved to -21½, and although there was only 2 points separating these teams last time they met, a whitewash is on the cards on Saturday night.
Tennis
Wimbledon has become a bit predictable over the past few years as a result of the complete domination of Roger Federer, but are we about to see a changing of the guard? Federer is normally long odds on to grab the men's title, and when you consider that he hasn't been beaten on grass since 2002, it is easy to see why punters are prepared to take those odds. But, this year there hasn't exactly been a rush to back Federer, even though he is priced at 2.00 (longer than he has been for 3 years), it seems that punters think that his reign may come to an end. There have been a few chinks in the Federer armoury starting to appear, he was beaten prior to Christmas when it was least expected, and of course he was on the receiving end of a nice old flogging in the French Open. Rafael Nadal has always had a question mark hanging over him on any surface other than clay, but the enormity of his French Open win, and victory in Halle last week has seen Nadal shorten into 3.20 to win Wimbledon. While we have found very few takers for Federer, there has been a lot of bets coming through for Nadal, who opened the week at 3.75. The only other player given any consideration at all is Novak Djokovic (5.00), although he is another who has had problems with consistency.
Maria Sharapova is 3.75 to win the women's title, and it would be fair to say that this year would be the most open ever, with question marks hovering above the head of most in the betting. Sharapova is at her best on grass, but was bundled out of the French Open after a couple of torrid battles against opponents in the early part of the draw, and the Williams' sisters suffered the same fate. Perhaps time has caught up to with the Williams' girls, and they have been hard to sell with Serena at 4.50 and Venus sitting on 5.50. We know only too well that you can never write them off, but it seems as though punters want to wait and see if they are at their best before backing them. We have seen some early action on Ana Ivanovic (including one bet of $1500) at 5.00 following on from her impressive win in the French Open, and with the tip being that the Wimbledon courts will be a lot slower this year, then Ivanovic has the game that may see her add the Wimbledon title to her list as well.
Rugby
The Internationals always have the potential to produce a surprise result and while the four games last weekend only produced one, none of the other three favourites managed to cover the handicap making it a good weekend for bookies.
The first game in Auckland saw the All Blacks 1.07 and conceding 18½ points win 37-20 against Ireland. Our first wager was $5,000 at the start forcing the handicap into 19½ which was followed by another $5,000 forcing the price into 1.86. While these was some late money for the visitors the result was well received and got the rugby weekend off to a good start.
The second of the Internationals in Melbourne had the Wallabies hosting Ireland at Telstra Dome. Betting opened with the home side 1.16 and conceding 14½ points however money for the visitors saw the handicap drift to 13½ by kick-off. Not many pundits were happy with the team Robbie Deans selected and they proved hard to lay. Ireland were on the end of a long campaign and a tough battle with the All Blacks the previous week so the result was disappointing for Wallaby fans.
The third International saw The Springboks too strong for Wales 37-21 in a poor betting affair while the final game had all the support for the home team Argentina as they firmed fro 1.38 into 1.33 and the start 8½ into 9½ The surprise 14-26 result to Scotland proved a windfall for bookies as many multis were put to the sword along with two separate $5,000 wagers conceding the start.
There are two Internationals on this weekend as the All Blacks host England again in Christchurch while South Africa host an under strength Italian team. The All Blacks are 1.03 and must concede 22½ points while England is 13.00. There is little money to this point in a game where there has been several changes to both teams. On paper the home team appears to have a decided edge and if weather conditions remain fair the margin should be larger thyan last week. No squads named in the last game so betting will be available tomorrow however the hosts will be very, very short.
Golf
There are many expletives which are used to describe Tiger Wood's achievements on a golf course. Now you can add 'Courage', and plenty of it, to that list.
The 'wounded Tiger' pulled off one of the most improbable escapes in golfing history when, after a collapse no one saw coming, he birdied the 90th hole to force the Championship to sudden death. The one extra hole was enough to send Rocco Mediate to his doom and prevent him from becoming the oldest US Open Champion at 45 years and 6 months. It was a great ending to one of the tightest and intense Opens in history and really for the US Golf Union it was a win/win situation. Woods wins and he becomes the first player to win seven times on the one course in PGA history, its his 14th Major and achieved under physical duress, thus making it his most courageous and memorable of wins. Twice he faced must make putts that only a Champion could make and twice he drained them. Mediate on the other hand was a fairytale and improbable win. Not only would he have become the oldest winner but his win too would have been achieved with an injury cloud in the guise of a rickety back.
From a betting perspective the Open was a flop. As much as 4.50 Tiger was given by the bagmen yet punters were still reticent to take. We were reticent to give it as we saw it as great value. Those who were well backed such as Ames, Leonard, Weir and Clark all failed to make an impression thus resulting in a fairly tame and uneventful Open. This time all the action was on the golf course.
The loss of Woods now for the season will impact upon the PGA tour in many ways however from a betting angle it certainly opens events to any player who is in form on the day. I suspect there will be a lot more action as punters see value in players either suited to the course or who are just in form. That pattern has emerged already in the Travelers Championship. Betting is certainly open with Cink and Singh heading the list at 16.00 ahead of Mahan and Perry at 17.00, Justin Rose 21.00 and Heath Slocum 26.00. Hunter Mahan is the defending Champion while Cink, Austin, Henry and Browne have tasted success at TPC River Highlands in the past. As a result we have 20 odd players who are losers for up to $20,000 including Mahan, Ryan Moore and Chad Campbell at 41.00, Nick O'Hern and Jerry Kelly at 51.00, Matt Kuchar and Tom Pernice at 81.00 along with a host of others. While the Open was exciting for the obvious reasons this event, like many to follow, will hold its interest to the last putt.
Motor Bikes
One of the better MotoGP races each season is the one held in Britain, and Valentino Rossi is our 2.75 favourite to salute at Donington this weekend.
The British MotoGP has not really been a happy hunting ground for Rossi over the past few years, and we have to go back to 2004 to find the last time Rossi won there. Several riders in the current crop have won there, and Casey Stoner was victorious last year, defeating Colin Edwards and Chris Vermuellen. A lot of the teams have been having trouble with tyre selection this season, and that will be the key to this week's race, as well as the weather. Not surprisingly, it often rains in England this time of the year (yes, Wimbledon is approaching), and those are the type of conditions that Rossi struggles with. Stoner (4.25) has good wet weather form, as does Vermuellen (34.00), so if it does look like rain, they will be two to keep a close eye on. Dani Pedrosa won the Catalunyan GP two weeks ago, and does have a good record in the British having won this race back in 2006, and he also won in the 250cc class in 2004. Pedrosa is a close second elect (3.50) behind Rossi, and looks very hard to beat.
Formula One
The F1 action returns to Europe after the Canadian GP, and the two Ferrari's head the betting again. Kimi Raikkonen heads the list at 2.30 ahead of Felipe Massa (3.00), Lewis Hamilton (5.50) and Robert Kubica next in line at 7.00. Kubica recorded his maiden win in Montreal, but he was fortunate to do so as both Raikkonen and Hamilton failed to finish. Assuming that neither suffer the same fate again, Kubica seems priced up to his very best at that quote, and we have seen little action for him. The two Ferraris finished at the head of proceedings in this race last year with Raikkonen beating Massa, and they were followed in by Hamilton and Kubica, and as you will see, that is order of betting for this weekend. Massa was fastest in qualifying in 2007, and has already proven this year that he is hard to pass if in front. If there is to be an upset at all, it may come from Fernando Alonso (21.00) who won this race in 2004 and 2005, and of course Alonso was with Renault then, where he has returned after a year with McLaren in 2006.