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Bookies Bag for the 26th of September

Rugby League
For 79 minutes of last week's Broncos v Melbourne game, all of our rugby league problems were solved.

Unfortunately the game goes for 80 minutes, and Melbourne scored in the corner to keep their finals hopes alive. There has been a lot spoken about the liabilities bookies around the country have with the Geelong/Melbourne Grand Final double, but apart from that Melbourne were backed for a bundle to win last week's game as well. Lasseters took one bet along of $20,000 for the Storm to win at 1.53 as their price was crunched in to 1.45, but there was some relief when they failed to cover a spread of 5½ points start.

So now there are only four left, and while Melbourne look to be in trouble, you can never write them off. Manly has overtaken Melbourne as favourite (2.40), with the Storm now out to 2.60. Mathematically Melbourne should be a much longer price in both this week's game against Cronulla and to go all the way, but the massive payouts that bookies face with them has kept their price under the odds.

Subsequently, that means that the other team are over the odds, so that is one of the main reasons why there has been a lot of interest in all three sides. The Sharks have been the most significant firmer this week in betting on the back of Cameron Smith being unavailable for Melbourne. Cronulla were 7.50 on Sunday night, but are now 5.75, and in the game they have been cut from 2.50 to 2.35.

In the other match, Manly appear well under the odds but punters disagree. After opening at 1.45, the Sea Eagles are now trading freely at 1.38, and we have also taken two bets of $5000 for them giving up eight points-start. New Zealand continues to stun the critics, and with Wade McKinnon back this week, we can't see any reason why they won't give Manly a run for their money, especially at the handicap start.

Australian Rules
The win by Adam Cooney in Monday's Brownlow Medal gave bookies one of their best ever results on the coveted award.

Cooney was actually on the fourth line of betting at 16.00 when the first envelope was opened, but punters had dropped off him after his form, as well as the Bulldogs, faltered in the latter part of the season. Cooney was actually as short as 4.00 after round eight, and there had been a rally for him around the country when many thought that Gary Ablett would be out for the season at one stage, but as we mentioned, Cooney's lapse in form saw his price blow out late in the season.

Ablett started favourite at 2.75, but he was very hard to sell in the final few days of betting although one Canberra based punter placed $6000 on the Geelong star at 2.50 Monday morning. Injury certainly robbed him of any hope, and will be a short priced favourite when markets are issued for next year.

One of the big surprises was how poorly both Jimmy Bartel and Brent Harvey polled, and those two players were the best backed on Monday. Bartel firmed from 4.00 into 3.00, while Harvey started at 4.00 after spending a major portion of the day at 4.50. Both were also backed to finish in the top five, Bartel backed from 1.33 into 1.25 while Harvey was 1.35 into 1.28. Eventual runner-up Simon Black was also nearly a 'skinner' in the winner book even though he was only a 26.00 shot, but there was money for him to be in the top five including one wager of $2000 at 4.00. It was interesting to see that Simon Black and Matthew Richardson finished in the top five even though their respective sides failed to make the finals, so that is worth keeping in mind for next year. It is also worth noting how many 'Three votes' were given to sides who failed to win their games, something that has rarely been seen in the past.

So with the Brownlow out of the road, all the focus is now on the Grand Final. The two best sides for the season are left to battle it out, and there has been a really good push for Hawthorn this week. Like all other bookies around the country, Lasseters has a rather large liability with Geelong, so punters can get inflated odds Hawthorn. The last time these two met was back in Round 17, at the MCG, and Geelong prevailed by 11 points. Geelong had some worrying moments before disposing of the Bulldogs, and that does give us some hope of getting them beaten this week. Hawthorn opened at 2.90 on Sunday, and the first bet taken was $15,000 from a Victorian punter who earlier in the year had placed $20,000 on the Cats at 3.00. That is pretty good business, and will be another reason why Hawthorn may shorten up even further as there are plenty of big punters who are already on Geelong at the bigger odds.

There are a host of betting options open on the final, and the most popular of those is always the Norm Smith Medal. In early trading, punters have gone for Ablett, Bartel and Buddy Franklin, but this game is likely to be a brutal, low scoring affair, and that does mean that it will become a raffle.

Cricket
The Australian team has landed in India for a four Test series beginning next week, and Aussie punters don't want a bar of the national team.

The last time Australia travelled to India they won the series 2-1, and they also won the last series held on home soil with the same score line. This time however, the Aussies are sending a side that has a lot of question marks hanging over it, and not a lot of experience on the sub continent.

Our cricket analyst thought that India was entitled to be favourites, and they opened at 2.25, but immediately a cricket fan from Melbourne pounced with a bet of $6000. Following on from that, India has been backed into 2.10, and not a single dollar has been placed on Australia, who has drifted from 2.50 out to 2.65. A drawn series is at 4.25, and a four Test series does make that a realistic chance of happening. Betting for the first Test will open next week.

Closer to home, the domestic season also begins in the next couple of weeks, and the markets are also open for the Sheffield Shield and Ford Ranger Cup. Western Australia are favourites to win both, and while the WACA pitch isn't the minefield it used to be, the Warriors still maintain a healthy home ground advantage. They have an array of young talent led up by Luke Pomersbach and Luke Ronchi, and while both are on the fringe of getting a gig in the Australian side, they won’t be regulars, so WA will benefit from that.

Formula One
All eyes will be on the Formula One action in Singapore this Sunday when the first race under lights will be conducted.

There is no form-line to follow for this, and it will also be the first race in Singapore, so betting is expected to be quiet. The race will be run around a 5k street circuit, and the mail is that it will be similar to Monaco; leaders will have a huge advantage.

Opportunities to pass will not come around too often, so qualifying is going to be all important. The title race is still wide open between Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa, so that will be another incentive to ensure a good position on the grid. The few early bets we have taken have been for Hamilton at 2.75, but we are more than happy to have Massa (3.25) on our side as he has shown he has the speed required to qualify in a good position. Kimi Raikkonen is third pick at 4.50, but with the Finn all but out of the driver's championship, one would think he will be doing his utmost to assist Massa in his chase for points.

Motor Bikes
Betting on this week's Japanese MotoGP has not opened yet, and it will remain closed until we know if Casey Stoner is a starter or not.

Stoner has been battling with a wrist injury, and now that his hopes of winning back to back titles is over, there is a strong chance that the only remaining race that he will compete in will be the Australian MotoGP. Naturally with Stoner always being one of the first two in the betting in these races, it is impossible to price up until there is confirmation that he is in or out. On current form, Valentino Rossi would go in as favourite ahead of Stoner in any case, and Dani Pedrosa will be the next in line.

A quick flick back through the records of the Japanese race makes for interesting reading. Loris Capirossi has won the last three events there, and also qualified fastest in two of those years. The Italian obviously has an affinity with the track as well as the conditions, so he may be worth having something on at reasonable odds, particularly if he shows up during the Friday sessions.