Buddha Stats
Buddha's Princesses
Signup to our Free Newsletter
Top Stories |
HOME > Bookies Bag
Australian Rules
To pinch one of Eddie's sayings, 'What a week it's been in football'.
The Cats were beaten, the West Coast improved their own weight, the Saints were smashed, and the Demons put up some sort of a fight before going down to Hawthorn. It all ended up resulting in a beneficial week for the bookies, but we needed it after a serious run of favourites winning.
The biggest bet to fall over when Geelong was beaten by Collingwood was a multi of $17,000 for both Geelong and Manly to win in the NRL. As it turned out, both were beaten, and this regular punter was unsighted for the rest of the weekend. There were a few who thought Melbourne would lift as a result of David Neitz retiring, and that they did. We did take one bet of $8000 for the Demons with 48 points-start, and that punter never had too many worries. There was also a concerted push around the nation for the Kangaroos to beat the Bulldogs, but in a terrific betting game, the win by the Roos was still a handy result. After opening at 2.80, the Roos were into 2.50 at game time, and there was also any amount of money for them with the handicap, including one bet of $10,000 with 14 points-start.
This week, they have jumped out of trees to back the Bulldogs to beat Hawthorn. The game will be played at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, and the Hawks have built up an imposing record there of recent times. They do have a few injury concerns however, and that has seen the Bulldogs come in from 2.90 to 2.40 with two days of trading still to go. Over $20,000 has also forced the handicap in from 14 points-start to 10, and there is no sign of the money running out.
While the Bulldogs are the outsiders, it is worth pointing out the price for all favourites to win this week is a little over 7.00, and that is one of the lowest dividends of all time. Most matches look forgone conclusions, but then again so did Geelong and Adelaide last week! Those two sides are raging hot favourites this week, but the really short odds have frightened punters away. That has meant increased interest in most of the handicaps, in particular the Adelaide v Essendon match. The Bombers look like they will have Scott Lucas back in the side, and that prompted two Victorian punters to put a combined total of $8000 on Essendon with 43 points-start. Bad weather is predicted in most capital cities this weekend, and would be one of the main reasons behind $5000 worth of bets coming for the Kangaroos with 25 points-start against Brisbane.
Geelong's loss last week has seen their flag odds drift alarmingly from 2.15 out to 2.70. Hawthorn and Collingwood have been the big movers, with the Hawks now a 3.00 chance (in from 3.75), and Collingwood looking a real danger at 10.00 after being 21.00 prior to their impressive win over the Cats.
Rugby League
Lasseters has opened the market up on Origin two, and although most Queenslanders will hate it, we have installed the Maroons as 1.60 favourites.
We expect there to be a few changes to the side, even though Queensland aren't renowned for that, and one of those will be the calling up of Scott Prince. While New South Wales won the first game, it is hard to imagine that Queensland could play that badly again, yet they were only eight points shy at the finish. A clear sign that most see it the same way as us is that in the first 48 hours of trading, less than $100 has been placed on the Blues at 2.35, and if there are some significant 'ins' for the Maroons, then they will certainly firm in the betting. With Mark Gasnier unlikely to line up in the second game, money for NSW is going to be hard to find.
Last weekend's round of NRL belonged to the bookies, culminating in a good win on the Monday night game. Those games have been the best betting matches all year, and Cronulla were very heavily backed to beat the Bulldogs. Some of the larger bets that went astray were $10,000 (1.75), and three separate bets of $5000 as the Sharks closed in on 1.65. Their legion of fans would have been on good terms with themselves when the Sharks scored in the opening minutes, and although they rallied late in the game, the Bulldogs were dominant. The Sharks have drifted back to 21.00 for the premiership, with Melbourne (3.00) and the Roosters (5.00) heading proceedings.
Some normality returns to the upcoming round with all players available, although some big names are doubtful starters. The Bulldogs travel to Melbourne to take on the Storm, and the home side have been heavily supported to cover a 13 point handicap. We've seen $15,000 worth of bets placed on Melbourne conceding the handicap, and that money coincided with a rumour going around that Sonny Bill Williams would be out of the Bulldogs side. Money talks, so don't be surprised if he is a late withdrawal.
There was also a small amount placed on Souths with 7½ start against the Dragons, on Thursday, and within a few hours it was announced that Mark Gasnier is also in doubt this week. It does pay to watch the betting fluctuations, especially in the middle of the week!
Rugby Union
We have arrived at the business end of Super 14s and it would be fair to say the two best and most consistent teams of the year deserve to be there.
Last week the Crusaders were far too polished for the Hurricanes and the Waratahs defence brutalised the Sharks into submission. There was plenty of money for the Crusaders as mentioned last week however, we pushed hard to get the Hurricanes in, and we eventually managed that. The Crusaders started 1.40 and conceded eight points while the Hurricanes got out to 3.05. Our last wager was $2,000 on the visitors to win and while the turnover was not great we still managed to come out relatively unscathed.
The second semi-final saw plenty of money for the visitors with punters all over the 2.50 and forcing the handicap in from 6½ to a flat 6. That included a $5,000 wager from a Western Australian client and also 3,000 pounds from an overseas client. We thought it was a tough ask for the visitors and the game paned out that way, with plenty of heavy hits fro the 'Tahs setting up another 15 point win at the SFS. If you don't believe in history then you won't believe it is the third time the Waratahs have defeated the Sharks by that margin in Sydney in six attempts.
The final will be a rip snorter, as the Waratahs travel to Christchurch with the firm belief the Crusaders are vulnerable in current form. If they bring the same punishing game they displayed last week then perhaps a surprise result is in the making. It's a surprise bookies are looking for as the title favourites have been well backed all year. Betting opened with the Crusaders a 4.00 chance, and on the back of heavy support including two separate wagers of $5,000 followed by a couple of impressive early season wins their price was quickly into 3.00. They have been odds on to take the title for the last six weeks so a win to the 'Tahs would be well received by the bookies.
Christchurch has been a graveyard for the Waratahs in recent years having won only once in eight attempts since 1996. A 35-25 defeat in the 2005 final is probably the best comparison and for those reasons the Crusaders are 1.32 and conceding 8½ points with the Waratahs at 3.50. There has been early money for both teams so this should be a great betting final. Most bookies will be taking a set against the Waratahs given their position with the Crusaders in Championship books so don't expect the 1.32 to last. Our tip is the Crusaders by five in a tight and tough encounter.
Golf
Phil Mickelson won the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial after making birdie on the 72nd hole to defeat Australian Rod Pampling and South African Tim Clark by a shot.
It's not the fact he made birdie which was impressive but where he made it from. A gap wedge from 125 metres, under the branches of one tree and over the top of another. The type of shot only the world number two, and undoubtedly the best exponent of wedge play on tour, could play.
The win was Mickelson's 34th on tour and he has become the only person on tour to win multiple events in each of the past five seasons. That's a pretty consistent record from a player touted as one of the least consistent. To confirm the label of Mr Consistency he has now won ten events a multiple number of times.
We said last week that interest in the top of the betting was low and players such as Gay, Petrovic, Day and Brooks were best supported. None except Brian Gay gave a yelp, and while turnover was down Mickelson still provided a satisfactory result. When you looked at his recent form, the fact he had previously won at Sugarloaf and apart from missing the cut at Pebble Beach had finished no further back the a tie for 23rd this season, the 10.00 represented real value.
This week we head to Ohio for the Memorial. An event in honour of the great Jack Nicklaus, and this week Mickelson has an opportunity to win the 'legends slam'. A winner of the Byron Nelson, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and now the Crowne Plaza, known as 'Hogan's Alley', Mickelson has the chance to be the first winner of this coveted Grand Slam if he takes the title this
week.
He has been installed a 7.50 favourite ahead of Stewart Cink and Sergio Garcia at 17.00, Geoff Ogilvy at 19.00, Jim Furyk at 23.00 and Ernie Els at 29.00. The fact he has never won here is of some concern while the likes of Furyk, Els, Choi and Perry have, which all goes well for their hopes.
So who have the punters rallied for? Best backed have been Cink, 19.00 into 17.00, Ogilvy 21.00 into 19.00 and Sean O'Hair, 51.00 into 41.00, all backed to win more than $30,000. It's great to lay some quality to give our book a solid base and no doubt that
nearing tee off the money for Mickelson will arrive. The 7.50 on offer is not quite as attractive as last week's 10.00 however, given his consistent form and the lack of it by his immediate competitors, it's hard to think that the public won't get behind the 'lefty'. His shot on the 72nd hole to win last week deserves at least that.
Formula One
We were right and we were wrong with the Monaco Grand Prix at the weekend!
Last week we said that it was important to draw at the front of the grid around the tight and windy Monte Carlo circuit, but eventual winner (Lewis Hamilton) came from position number three.
We also pointed out that a win for Hamilton was close, but when Ferrari qualified quickest to occupy the top two positions on the starting grid, we basically put the pen through Hamilton�s name, and pushed his price out to 5.00. Ironically, we failed to get a decent bite for him at that quote, but we still managed to lose on the race as he had been heavily backed on Thursday prior to the first practice session.
One new client from Portugal was the biggest winner when he placed 2000 Euro on Hamilton at 3.85, and that was closely followed by a New Zealander with a bet of $1200 at 3.75. Felipe Massa was the fastest qualifier and went into the race as a 2.35 favourite ahead of Kimi Raikkonen at 3.25. Normally there would be a surge of late money for one or the other, but bad weather in Monaco put an end to that, and it was Hamilton who capitalised best in the treacherous conditions.
The win by Hamilton has opened up the title race again, with Raikkonen an easing favourite; now out to 2.00 after being 1.50. Lewis Hamilton has had his price slashed from 4.75 into 2.85, while Massa remains the only other serious contender at 4.50. The action now moves to Canada, and that course suits the quicker cars, so it will be interesting to see if the McLaren of Hamilton's can hold out the Ferraris.
Motorbikes
If you believe in historical records, then Valentino Rossi looks an absolute special in this week's Italian MotoGP.
The diminutive Italian will be riding in front of his home crowd, and is in great form. However, it is Rossi's previous statistics in this event that will only add further fuel as to why he is an odds-on favourite (1.80).
This week he will be attempting to make it seven wins on the trot in the Italian GP. That is an amazing record in any sport, and has really frightened away punters who think any other rider can win this week. Normally in early trading we would see scattered interest amongst a handful of the leading hopes, but that hasn't happened this week.
The ankle injuries to Jorge Lorenzo should be well on the way to healing, and he is on the second line of betting at 5.00 along with Dani Pedrosa. Pedrosa was disappointing last start, and he was second in this race last year behind Rossi, albeit three seconds in arrears. Casey Stoner was the fastest qualifier last year before winding up in fourth position, but Stoner and his Ducati are really struggling at the moment, and there is no early interest in him at 7.00.